Expected Value Calculator
Expected value tells you what a bet is worth on average, over many repeated instances, given the probability you believe is true versus the price on offer.
How it works
P is your estimated win probability (0-1). The first term is your average winnings; the second is your average losses. A positive result means the bet is, by your own numbers, priced in your favor.
Worked example: Odds 2.10, your estimate 54%, $20 stake: EV = (0.54 x 1.10 x 20) - (0.46 x 20) = $11.88 - $9.20 = +$2.68.
FAQ
Does positive EV guarantee a profit?
No single bet is guaranteed. EV describes the average outcome across many repeated bets at the same edge - variance still applies to any one bet.
Where does my probability estimate come from?
That's on you - from research, a model, or your own judgment. This tool only does the math once you supply a number.
Related tools
18+. These tools are analytical only - they do not accept bets, do not predict outcomes, and do not guarantee profit. Gamble responsibly. Sports betting regulations vary by jurisdiction; you are responsible for understanding and complying with the laws where you live.
Canonical URL: https://aipredicts.bet/tools/expected-value-calculator