Strategy
How to Test a Betting Strategy
Before betting real money on a system, stress-test it the same way you'd stress-test any other model.
Define the claimed edge precisely
A testable strategy needs a specific, falsifiable rule - not just a general feeling that something works.
Paper-trade before staking real money
Recording hypothetical bets over a meaningful sample size tests whether the strategy holds up.
Simulate the bankroll path
The Bankroll Simulator runs many independent simulated paths to show the realistic range of outcomes.
FAQ
How long should a paper-trading period be?
Long enough for variance to stop dominating - often hundreds of predictions, not dozens.
What if paper results look great but real staking feels worse?
That's often a sign of staking discipline slipping, not that the underlying edge changed.